Fantasy football projection accuracyWhose projections are right?
Every week, we grade each source's player projections against what the players actually scored. Smaller misses are better, and so is putting players in the right order.
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Every week, we grade each source's player projections against what the players actually scored. Smaller misses are better, and so is putting players in the right order.
Weekly projections via Sleeper. The site's player values use these.
8,068 player-games, 2024–2026
RotoWire is our only projection source for now. As we add more, each one is graded here on the same players, with the best source at every position, so you can choose which to use on Settings.
Average miss in points (lower is better) and rank correlation (higher is better). Best in bold.
| RotoWire | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pos | Avg miss | Order |
| QB | 6.17 points average miss | 0.26 rank correlation |
| RB | 5.53 points average miss | 0.55 rank correlation |
| WR | 5.83 points average miss | 0.36 rank correlation |
| TE | 5.16 points average miss | 0.27 rank correlation |
| K | 3.79 points average miss | 0.05 rank correlation |
| DST | 4.16 points average miss | 0.26 rank correlation |
| All | 5.33 points average miss | 0.34 rank correlation |
Average miss per player each week, all positions (lower is better).
| Week | RotoWire |
|---|---|
| 2024 wk 1 | 5.34 |
| 2024 wk 2 | 5.27 |
| 2024 wk 3 | 5.79 |
| 2024 wk 4 | 5.22 |
| 2024 wk 5 | 5.22 |
| 2024 wk 6 | 5.27 |
| 2024 wk 7 | 5.77 |
| 2024 wk 8 | 4.93 |
| 2024 wk 9 | 5.17 |
| 2024 wk 10 | 4.57 |
| 2024 wk 11 | 5.70 |
| 2024 wk 12 | 5.07 |
| 2024 wk 13 | 4.88 |
| 2024 wk 14 | 5.02 |
| 2024 wk 15 | 5.61 |
| 2024 wk 16 | 5.28 |
| 2024 wk 17 | 5.76 |
| 2024 wk 18 | 5.58 |
| 2025 wk 1 | 4.88 |
| 2025 wk 2 | 5.19 |
| 2025 wk 3 | 5.16 |
| 2025 wk 4 | 5.11 |
| 2025 wk 5 | 4.92 |
| 2025 wk 6 | 5.32 |
| 2025 wk 7 | 6.01 |
| 2025 wk 8 | 5.42 |
| 2025 wk 9 | 5.13 |
| 2025 wk 10 | 5.25 |
| 2025 wk 11 | 5.67 |
| 2025 wk 12 | 5.39 |
| 2025 wk 13 | 4.97 |
| 2025 wk 14 | 5.23 |
| 2025 wk 15 | 5.74 |
| 2025 wk 16 | 5.77 |
| 2025 wk 17 | 5.38 |
| 2025 wk 18 | 5.21 |
| 2026 wk 1 | 5.91 |
| 2026 wk 2 | 5.55 |
| 2026 wk 3 | 5.36 |
| 2026 wk 4 | 5.25 |
| 2026 wk 5 | 5.72 |
| 2026 wk 6 | 5.06 |
Want your league's numbers? The trade calculator values every player from these projections in your league's exact scoring.